Aurora Forecast

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27 Day

Alerts:
none

Solar-terrestrial indices for 24 August follow.
Solar flux 66 and estimated planetary A-index 5.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 24 August was 1.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.

Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 23 Aug 004
Estimated Ap 24 Aug 005
Predicted Ap 25 Aug-27 Aug 005-010-016

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Aug-27 Aug
Active                03/40/40
Minor storm           01/23/23
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 25 Aug - 27 Aug
             Aug 25    Aug 26    Aug 27
00-03UT        2         2         3
03-06UT        2         1         4
06-09UT        2         1         4
09-12UT        1         1         3
12-15UT        1         2         2
15-18UT        1         3         2
18-21UT        1         3         2
21-00UT        2         4         3

Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 24-Aug 26 2019 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 24-Aug 26 2019

            Aug 24     Aug 25     Aug 26
00-03UT        2          2          2
03-06UT        2          2          1
06-09UT        1          2          1
09-12UT        1          1          1
12-15UT        1          1          2
15-18UT        1          1          3
18-21UT        1          1          3
21-00UT        2          2          4

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.
Unsettled to active levels are expected on 26 Aug due to CH HSS
activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 24-Aug 26 2019

              Aug 24  Aug 25  Aug 26
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 24-Aug 26 2019

              Aug 24        Aug 25        Aug 26
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.

Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels on 24-26 Aug.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 24-26 Aug. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were nominal. Solar wind speed decreased from
approximately 380 km/s to near 350 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-3 nT
while the Bz component was between +/-2 nT. Phi angle was oriented in a
positive (away) solar sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain nominal levels on 24-25
Aug. Late on 26 Aug, enhancements from the onset of a negative polarity
CH HSS is expected.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on 24-25 Aug under
a nominal solar wind regime. Unsettled to active conditions, with a
chance for G1 (Minor) storm levels, are likely late on 26 Aug due to
anticipated coronal hole influence.

27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2019 Aug 19      68           5          2
2019 Aug 20      68           7          3
2019 Aug 21      68           7          3
2019 Aug 22      68           6          3
2019 Aug 23      68           5          2
2019 Aug 24      68           5          2
2019 Aug 25      68           5          2
2019 Aug 26      67           8          3
2019 Aug 27      67           8          3
2019 Aug 28      67           8          3
2019 Aug 29      67           5          2
2019 Aug 30      67           5          2
2019 Aug 31      67           5          2
2019 Sep 01      67          38          5
2019 Sep 02      67          14          4
2019 Sep 03      67           5          2
2019 Sep 04      67           5          2
2019 Sep 05      67           5          2
2019 Sep 06      67           8          3
2019 Sep 07      67           8          3
2019 Sep 08      67           5          2
2019 Sep 09      67           5          2
2019 Sep 10      67           5          2
2019 Sep 11      67           5          2
2019 Sep 12      68           5          2
2019 Sep 13      68           5          2
2019 Sep 14      68           5          2

Save as 'My Presets'

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.
From Date: (YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM). Leave empty for real-time.

Range: (in hours, WARNING 1 hour = ~10KB of data)
Local Time Zone:
Enable Forecast / Timeshift (Recommended) Enable Fixed Y Axis Values Combine Y Series (B*, Proton, Dyn Preasure & Kp). Show Axis Titles Show Graph Legend (Keys) Enable Auto Update (Range will be reduced to 2 hours) Enable Night Vision Red Theme

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.
'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

AF Index (Experemental) AF Community Activity (Hits)
Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

SWPC Kp (Observation)
SWPC Kp (Prediction) GeoSpace Kp (Prediction) Wing Kp (Legacy : Date < 22/06/18)
Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.

Northern Hemisphere (Aurora Borealis) Southern Hemisphere (Aurora Australis)
DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

Mag Bt (Total Strength) Mag Bx (X Axis) Mag By (Y Axis) Mag Bz (Z Axis) Solar Wind Speed Proton Density Dynamic Pressure (Calculated)
ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
Show ACE (When enabled the forecasting / timeshift feature will be disabled)
GOES Satalites: Learn more

GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

Primary (G15) Secondary (G14) Variation (Pri - Sec)
Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

Macquarie Island (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Mawson (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Canberra (Intermagnet / Geo Science Aus) Ruru Obseratory (www.ruruobseratory.org.nz / NZ) Aurora Forecast #1 (Hobart) Aurora Forecast #2 (Hobart)

v4.02b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

v4.X Release (2nd June 2019)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)

v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.

v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).

v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.

> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)
Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

DATA SOURCES: Learn more
Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.