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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
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Solar-terrestrial indices for 22 January follow.
Solar flux 72 and estimated planetary A-index 5.
The estimated planetary K-index at 2100 UTC on 22 January was 1.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 21 Jan 006
Estimated Ap 22 Jan 005
Predicted Ap 23 Jan-25 Jan 005-005-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Jan-25 Jan
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           01/01/01
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 23 Jan - 25 Jan
             Jan 23    Jan 24    Jan 25
00-03UT        2         2         2
03-06UT        2         1         1
06-09UT        1         1         1
09-12UT        1         1         1
12-15UT        1         1         1
15-18UT        1         1         1
18-21UT        2         2         2
21-00UT        2         2         2


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 22-Jan 24 2020 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 22-Jan 24 2020

            Jan 22     Jan 23     Jan 24
00-03UT        2          3          2
03-06UT        2          3          1
06-09UT        1          2          1
09-12UT        1          2          1
12-15UT        1          2          1
15-18UT        1          2          1
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jan 22-Jan 24 2020

              Jan 22  Jan 23  Jan 24
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jan 22-Jan 24 2020

              Jan 22        Jan 23        Jan 24
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 22-24 Jan.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was below alert threshold values,
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron is expected to be at moderate to high
levels on 22-24 Jan with CH HSS activity. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The solar wind environment became slightly enhanced early due to a
negative polarity CH HSS. Total field averaged near 7 nT, and Bz
periodically deviated southward in excess of -5 nT for short intervals.
Solar wind speeds were steady near 350 km/s for most of the period. Phi
was predominately negative.

.Forecast...
CH HSS effects are expected to continue into 22 Jan. Thereafter a return
to nominal, background solar wind conditions is expected.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet, with an isolated unsettled
period.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet to unsettled
levels through 22 Jan with ongoing CH HSS activity. An isolated active
period (Kp=4) is also possible. Mostly quiet conditions can be expected
by 23 Jan through 24 Jan.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2020 Jan 20      72          12          4
2020 Jan 21      72          12          4
2020 Jan 22      72          10          3
2020 Jan 23      72           5          2
2020 Jan 24      72           5          2
2020 Jan 25      72           5          2
2020 Jan 26      72           5          2
2020 Jan 27      72           5          2
2020 Jan 28      72           5          2
2020 Jan 29      72           5          2
2020 Jan 30      72           5          2
2020 Jan 31      72           5          2
2020 Feb 01      72          10          3
2020 Feb 02      72          10          3
2020 Feb 03      72          10          3
2020 Feb 04      72          10          3
2020 Feb 05      72          10          3
2020 Feb 06      71           5          2
2020 Feb 07      71           5          2
2020 Feb 08      71           5          2
2020 Feb 09      71           5          2
2020 Feb 10      71           5          2
2020 Feb 11      71           5          2
2020 Feb 12      71           5          2
2020 Feb 13      71           5          2
2020 Feb 14      71           5          2
2020 Feb 15      71           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.10b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 10th Oct 2019)
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain.
Why not make a donation to keep it running?
Feedback is always welcome. - ©2019 Brendan Davey