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Ovation: South
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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
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Solar-terrestrial indices for 09 December follow.
Solar flux 71 and estimated planetary A-index 4.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1200 UTC on 10 December was 1.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 08 Dec 003
Estimated Ap 09 Dec 008
Predicted Ap 10 Dec-12 Dec 005-005-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Dec-12 Dec
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 10 Dec - 12 Dec
             Dec 10    Dec 11    Dec 12
00-03UT        2         2         2
03-06UT        1         1         1
06-09UT        1         1         1
09-12UT        1         1         1
12-15UT        1         1         1
15-18UT        1         1         1
18-21UT        2         2         2
21-00UT        2         2         2


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 10-Dec 12 2019 is 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 10-Dec 12 2019

            Dec 10     Dec 11     Dec 12
00-03UT        1          2          2
03-06UT        2          1          1
06-09UT        1          1          1
09-12UT        1          1          1
12-15UT        1          1          1
15-18UT        1          1          1
18-21UT        1          2          2
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-16 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 10-Dec 12 2019

              Dec 10  Dec 11  Dec 12
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 10-Dec 12 2019

              Dec 10        Dec 11        Dec 12
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. The visible disk was spotless. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels on 10-12 Dec.

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to persist at normal to
moderate levels on 10-12 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
is expected to persist at background levels throughout the period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters became enhanced over the course of the period due
to negative polarity CH HSS influence. Total field values increased to
5-9 nT, and the Bz component underwent a brief, southward deflection of
-9 nT. Wind speeds became elevated from ambient, back-ground levels to
speeds of ~450 km/s. The phi angle was predominantly in a negative
orientation, but did undergo brief excursions into a positive solar
sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are anticipated to remain slightly elevated over
the remainder of 10 Dec. A return to an ambient solar wind environment
is expected for 11-12 Dec.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels.

.Forecast...
Quiet conditions, with a chance for isolated unsettled activity, is
expected for 10 Dec. Quiet conditions are expected 11-12 Dec.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2019 Dec 09      70           8          3
2019 Dec 10      70           5          2
2019 Dec 11      70           5          2
2019 Dec 12      70           5          2
2019 Dec 13      70           8          3
2019 Dec 14      70           8          3
2019 Dec 15      70           5          2
2019 Dec 16      70           5          2
2019 Dec 17      70           5          2
2019 Dec 18      70          12          4
2019 Dec 19      70          10          4
2019 Dec 20      70          10          3
2019 Dec 21      70          10          3
2019 Dec 22      70           5          2
2019 Dec 23      70           5          2
2019 Dec 24      70           5          2
2019 Dec 25      70           5          2
2019 Dec 26      70           5          2
2019 Dec 27      70           5          2
2019 Dec 28      70           5          2
2019 Dec 29      70           5          2
2019 Dec 30      70           5          2
2019 Dec 31      70           5          2
2020 Jan 01      70           5          2
2020 Jan 02      70           5          2
2020 Jan 03      70           5          2
2020 Jan 04      70           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.10b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 10th Oct 2019)
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

©2019 Brendan Davey