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Alerts:
Space Weather Message Code: ALTEF3
Serial Number: 2956
Issue Time: 2019 Jul 17 1411 UTC

CONTINUED ALERT: Electron 2MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Continuation of Serial Number: 2955
Begin Time: 2019 Jul 10 1230 UTC
Yesterday Maximum 2MeV Flux: 2864 pfu
www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation
Potential Impacts: Satellite systems may experience significant charging resulting in increased risk to satellite systems.


Solar-terrestrial indices for 16 July follow.
Solar flux 67 and estimated planetary A-index 4.
The estimated planetary K-index at 1800 UTC on 17 July was 1.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

No space weather storms are predicted for the next 24 hours.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 15 Jul 007
Estimated Ap 16 Jul 006
Predicted Ap 17 Jul-19 Jul 006-005-005

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Jul-19 Jul
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Moderate storm        01/01/01
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 17 Jul - 19 Jul
             Jul 17    Jul 18    Jul 19
00-03UT        2         2         2
03-06UT        2         1         1
06-09UT        2         1         1
09-12UT        1         1         1
12-15UT        1         1         1
15-18UT        1         1         1
18-21UT        2         2         2
21-00UT        2         2         2


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jul 17-Jul 19 2019 is 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jul 17-Jul 19 2019

            Jul 17     Jul 18     Jul 19
00-03UT        1          2          2
03-06UT        2          1          1
06-09UT        2          1          1
09-12UT        2          1          1
12-15UT        1          1          1
15-18UT        1          1          1
18-21UT        1          2          2
21-00UT        2          2          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Jul 17-Jul 19 2019

              Jul 17  Jul 18  Jul 19
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Jul 17-Jul 19 2019

              Jul 17        Jul 18        Jul 19
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in
available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain very low on 17-19 Jul due to a lack
of sunspots or active regions.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels,
with a maximum flux reached of 2,840 pfu at 16/1835 UTC. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux maintained background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate
to high levels on 17-19 Jul, and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is
expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters began the period near background levels. Wind
speeds averaged around 375 km/s, total field was steady near 4 nT, Bz
had minor deviations, and the phi angle was in a positive orientation.
Just after 17/0000 UTC, solar winds, density, total field, and Bz all
observed a gradual, weak enhancement. Wind speeds eventually peaked over
500 km/s, total field strength reached 7 nT, the Bz component saw weak
southward deflections to -5 nT, and the phi angle intermittently
oscillated to the negative sector. These weak enhancements are likely
the result of a tepid interaction with a negative polarity coronal hole.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are likely to remain near background levels for
17-19 Jul, with isolated enhancements due primarily to weak interactions
with the isolated, negative polarity CH HSS.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet, with a chance for
an occasional unsettled period, on 17-19 Jul in response to possible
weak interactions with the negative polarity CH HSS.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2019 Jul 15      67          10          4
2019 Jul 16      67          12          4
2019 Jul 17      67           8          3
2019 Jul 18      67           5          2
2019 Jul 19      67           5          2
2019 Jul 20      67           5          2
2019 Jul 21      67           5          2
2019 Jul 22      67           5          2
2019 Jul 23      67           5          2
2019 Jul 24      67           5          2
2019 Jul 25      67           5          2
2019 Jul 26      67           5          2
2019 Jul 27      67           5          2
2019 Jul 28      67           8          3
2019 Jul 29      67           5          2
2019 Jul 30      67           5          2
2019 Jul 31      67           5          2
2019 Aug 01      67           5          2
2019 Aug 02      67           5          2
2019 Aug 03      67           5          2
2019 Aug 04      67           8          3
2019 Aug 05      67          15          4
2019 Aug 06      67          15          4
2019 Aug 07      67           8          3
2019 Aug 08      67           5          2
2019 Aug 09      67           5          2
2019 Aug 10      67           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.

 

v4.02b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release (2nd June 2019)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

©2019 Brendan Davey