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Ovation: South
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Weather: TAS
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Alerts:
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Solar-terrestrial indices for 23 October follow.
Solar flux 65 and estimated planetary A-index 2.
The estimated planetary K-index at 0300 UTC on 24 October was 0.

No space weather storms were observed for the past 24 hours.

Space weather for the next 24 hours is predicted to be minor.
Geomagnetic storms reaching the G1 level are likely.


Geo Magnetic Forecast:

NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 22 Oct 003
Estimated Ap 23 Oct 003
Predicted Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct 022-030-015

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Active                30/34/35
Minor storm           40/45/20
Moderate storm        15/20/05
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/01

NOAA Kp index forecast 24 Oct - 26 Oct
             Oct 24    Oct 25    Oct 26
00-03UT        2         4         4
03-06UT        2         5         3
06-09UT        2         5         3
09-12UT        2         5         3
12-15UT        3         4         3
15-18UT        4         3         3
18-21UT        5         3         3
21-00UT        5         4         3


Extended Three Day Forecast:

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 24-Oct 26 2019 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 24-Oct 26 2019

            Oct 24     Oct 25     Oct 26
00-03UT        2          4          4
03-06UT        2          5 (G1)     3
06-09UT        2          5 (G1)     3
09-12UT        2          5 (G1)     3
12-15UT        3          4          3
15-18UT        4          3          3
18-21UT        5 (G1)     3          3
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          3

Rationale: Periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are likely
on 24-25 Oct due to CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-14 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2019

              Oct 24  Oct 25  Oct 26
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Oct 24-Oct 26 2019

              Oct 24        Oct 25        Oct 26
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


Extended Space Weather Discussion:

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in
available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to persist at very low levels on 24-26 Oct.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal and the greater than 10
MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on 24-25 Oct as a positive polarity CH HSS moves into a
geoeffective position. By 26 Oct, electron flux levels are likely to
increase to high levels as CH HSS effects persist. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux is expected to continue at background levels through-out
the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters remained at background levels under a nominal
solar wind regime.

.Forecast...
Background solar wind parameters are expected to give way to enhanced
conditions on 24 Oct as a CIR, ahead of an anticipated positive polarity
CH HSS, is anticipated to arrive at Earth. Wind speeds reaching 600 km/s
are likely as the coronal hole moves into a geoeffective position. CH
HSS effects are projected to last through 25 Oct before beginning to
abate on 26 Oct.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to remain mostly quiet for the first
part of 24 Oct. However, mid to late day a positive polarity CH HSS is
expected to move into a geoeffective position, increasing activity to
mostly unsettled to active levels, with isolated G1 (minor) storm
periods likely. The G1 storm conditions are likely to continue on 25 Oct
as CH HSS influence persists. By 26 Oct, conditions should begin to
weaken as the CH begins its transit out of a geoeffective position.


27 Day Forecast:

Date | Radio Flux | Planetary A Index | Largest Kp Index
2019 Oct 21      66          12          4
2019 Oct 22      66           8          3
2019 Oct 23      66           5          2
2019 Oct 24      66          20          5
2019 Oct 25      66          25          5
2019 Oct 26      66          15          4
2019 Oct 27      66          15          4
2019 Oct 28      66          12          4
2019 Oct 29      66           8          3
2019 Oct 30      66           5          2
2019 Oct 31      66           5          2
2019 Nov 01      66           5          2
2019 Nov 02      66           5          2
2019 Nov 03      66           5          2
2019 Nov 04      66           5          2
2019 Nov 05      66           5          2
2019 Nov 06      66           5          2
2019 Nov 07      66           5          2
2019 Nov 08      66           5          2
2019 Nov 09      66           5          2
2019 Nov 10      66           5          2
2019 Nov 11      66           5          2
2019 Nov 12      66           5          2
2019 Nov 13      66           5          2
2019 Nov 14      66           5          2
2019 Nov 15      66           5          2
2019 Nov 16      66           5          2


  • GRAPH OPTIONS: Learn more
    It is recommended that you start out with the default options. As you get used to AF you can disable additional information and combine data series' together to maxamise the use of screen space.

  • DATA SOURCES: Learn more
    Some data sources can only be enabled or disabled via the tick box. Others are disabled using the slider set to 0, or enabled by setting the slider from 0.5 to 4. This number also represents the thinkness of the line plot onto the graph.

  • 'The' Aurora Forecast Index: Learn more
    These are two good options for predicting Auroras.

    The Aurora Forecast Index takes into account many data sources. As a general rule if it stays high for many hours there is a good possibility of an Aurora present.

    Aurora Forecast website usage is also a good indicator, as visitors to the site come from many traffic sources. General internet and community chatter transplating to visits is a great indicator.

  • Planatary K Index (Kp): Learn more
    The Kp number is a system of measuring aurora strength. The range goes from 0 to 9 (0 being calm, 1 very weak, all the way up to 9, which would represent a major geomagnetic storm with strong auroras visible).

    Kp 5 and above is classified as a geomagnetic storm. Most Aurora Hunters consider prolonged 3+ or higher worth investigation.

  • Ovation (Model) Short Term Forecast (GW):' Learn more
    The Ovation-Prime Model produced by SWPC calculates the energy interacting with the Earths magnetic field. This is a good indicator for Aurora activity.
  • DSCOVR Observatory (L1): Learn more

    The DSCOVR or Deep Space Climate Obervatory sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. DSCOVR provides space weather readings, allowing for up to an hour of warning on weather events. This is why DSCOVR's data appears in the future on the graph.

    Strong negative Bz direction is linked to Aurora's because the solar wind magnetic direction is in direct oposition with the Earths magnetic field.

  • ACE Observatory (L1): Learn more

    ACE or Advanced Composition Explorer sits 1.5 million Kilometers from Earth, between the Earth and the Sun in the L1 orbit point, the neutral gravity point between the Earth and the Sun. ACE has now been replaced by DSCOVR, but the data is still useful for comparing to DSCOVR.
  • GOES Satalites: Learn more

    GOES or Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites sit 46 Kilometers above the Earth in geostationary orbit. They provide local space weather data and are a good indicator for current geomagnetic conditions.

  • Terrestrial Magnetometer Sources: Learn more
    Terrestrial or surface magnetometers detect fluctuations in the Earths magnetic field from the ground.
    These do not work as well as satalites as the magnetic field obsorbs some of the effects from the solar winds.
    There is a mix of govenment and citizen science stations listed here, including two run by Aurora Forecast in Hobart.
  • User Magnetometer ID's: Learn more
    If you have a TAFS Magnetometer and you want to add it to the graph you can do it here.
    Insent your Mag's Unique ID.

 

v4.10b

Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.


v4.X Release 10th Oct 2019)
Addded the ability to add 2 custom Magnetometers in settings (comming soon) (18/10/19).
Improved Hobart Magnetometer code. (18/18/19)
Move all presets into their own pop out side menu. (19/06/19)
Added Composite weather maps (TAS, VIC and SA), thanks to Oz forecast! (19/06/19)
UI Upgrades, Name, Logo and Website Site Changes.
Added custom line widths for most items.
Added GOES Difference (#1 - #2)
Added Ovation-prime model outputs.

v3.8x
Various Updates, New AF Index Algo. (8/12/18)

v3.6x
Added more Presets. Disabled Presets overwriting graph views (6/7/18)
Added GeoSpace Kp Model Prediction. (3/7/18)
Added SWPC Kp Forecast + Observation. (2/7/18)
Removed WingKP and USKp. :( No longer Avaliable. (2/7/18)
Removed feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Unreliable). (2/7/18)
Updates to latest JQuery, JQuery Mobile and AmCharts etc. (2/7/18)
Enhanced Pro setting with Dynamic Preasure. (2/7/18)
Added Quickselect preset buttons to main page. (2/7/18)
 
v3.5x
Added Ruru Observatory Magnetometer. (25/4/28)
Added Forecast Sub Tabset. (1/3/18)
Added Extended Discussion Text, 27Day FC (1/3/18)
Removed Dial, and Added Forecast Report. (28/2/18)
Updated A few settings for better visilation. (28/2/18)
Updated Goes-13 is Now Goes-14 (15/2/18)
Improved Commmunity Activity for faster loads.
Consolidated Proton Density / Dynamic Preasure.
Added Additional Balloon Text.
Added TAFS Visual Probability in %.
User Interface Upgrades.
Add 'Dial' for the basics, with default support.
Added one click presets.
 
v2.1 - v2.49
Added 'Automatic Chart Update' option in settings.
Database caching enabled, significant load time improvements.
Extension to max 96 hours of data, up from 24.
Added ACE Bt,Bx and By for comparison.
Added More User Presets.
Fixed Orentation Change Alert.
Small layout changes.
Added Header Image.
Removed Top Header to fee up Space, Refresh added to Chart Tab.
Added Community Activity Indicator
Fixed MAG value issues in graph.
Added Second Hobart MAG Source.
Updated Comment Features (Disable).
 
v2.0
Fixed DSCOVR B? display bug.
Added MAG Stack Feature.
Upgrade to json feeds.
Feeds are timezone and forecast aware, making them super fast.
DB Optimisation, improved DB search times.
Charts are now zoomable, allow selection and export.
Added USAF Kp, Updated Wing Kp.
Added Ovation Aurora Short Term Forecast.
Added Macquarie Island MAG feed.
Added Mawson MAG Feed.
Added Canberra Feed.
Added MAG feed from www.dunedinaurora.nz (Portobello).
Added Brendan's experemental MAG feed (Hobart).
Fixed cookie bug, One Alert is enough for landscape mode.
 
> v1.0 (Started 20/10/2014)

  Mawson and Macquarie Island data is copyright Commonwealth of Australia (Geoscience Australia), and redistributed under Creative Commons v4.
Thanks to INTERMAGNET for promoting high standards of magnetic observatory practice in providing access to these feeds. (www.intermagnet.org).

Local Australian weather composite maps provided by Oz Forecast


Aurora Forecast is free to use, however it takes a lot of time and effort to maintain. If you find it useful and are a regular user then please consider making a donation to keep it running. Feedback is always welcome.

©2019 Brendan Davey